ARI vs SD — MainMarket Sports · MainMarket Sports

The Padres have been strong at home this season, leveraging their familiar environment at Petco Park. This venue has historically favored their pitching staff, which could play a crucial role today.
The Diamondbacks have shown inconsistency on the road, and facing a solid Padres lineup could challenge their pitching depth. They will need to find a way to generate runs against a capable starter for the Padres.
While both teams have had their ups and downs recently, the Padres seem to have the edge in terms of home-field advantage and overall roster strength. This could be a close matchup, but I give a slight nod to the Padres.

Our analysis

What to watchLow confidence

Kelly and Canning face off in tight matchup

Merrill Kelly takes the mound for Arizona, bringing a 5.71 ERA into this crucial game against the Padres.

On the mound: Merrill Kelly (RHP) vs Griffin Canning (RHP)Batting average: F. Tatis Jr. (.284)

Probable pitchers

Merrill Kelly

RHP · #29

Griffin Canning

RHP · #17

Player	W-L	ERA	WHIP	IP	H	K	BB	HR
ARI	6-8	5.71	1.56	86.2	100	53	35	19
SD	1-6	6.71	1.61	51.0	52	50	30	8

ARI · arsenal

4-Seam92.126%13% whiff

Changeup88.525%31% whiff

Cutter91.116%13% whiff

Curveball82.612%23% whiff

Slider86.411%33% whiff

SD · arsenal

4-Seam94.327%18% whiff

Slider87.425%39% whiff

Changeup89.923%23% whiff

Sinker93.610%3% whiff

Cutter89.46%28% whiff

Team leaders

Batting

Batting average

K. Marte

.266

vs L .299 · vs R .254

F. Tatis Jr.

.284

vs L .304 · vs R .279

Home runs

K. Marte

17 HR

vs L .299 · vs R .254

M. Machado

18 HR

vs L .238 · vs R .172

RBI

K. Marte

54 RBI

vs L .299 · vs R .254

M. Machado

51 RBI

vs L .238 · vs R .172

Pitching

ERA

E. Rodriguez

2.25

M. King

3.41

Wins

M. Soroka

8 W

M. King

6 W

Strikeouts

M. Soroka

79 K

M. King

92 K

Top hitters

ARI

AVG

.294▲

Gabriel Moreno

Arizona Diamondbacks

xwOBA 87th

2Ketel Marte.266
3Corbin Carroll.261▼
4Ildemaro Vargas.257▼

AVG

.317

Luis Campusano

San Diego Padres

Max Exit Velo 64th

2Fernando Tatis Jr..284
3Miguel Andujar.266▲
4Ty France.254

Season batting average · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

ARI

Starter

Merrill Kelly

Arizona Diamondbacks · 6-8

xwOBA 1st

5.71 ERA · 53 K · 1.56 WHIP

Starter

Griffin Canning

San Diego Padres · 1-6

xwOBA 23rd

6.71 ERA · 50 K · 1.61 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Matchup to watch

Ketel Marte is 2-for-8 (.250) vs Canning
Fernando Tatis Jr. is 11-for-31 (.355, 4 HR) vs Kelly

Career batter vs pitcher · MLB Stats API

Win probability

ARI 48%SD 52%

Team stats

ARISD

724

Hits

681

390

Runs

362

Home Runs

375

RBI

354

Stolen Bases

288

Walks

302

663

Strikeouts

773

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

ARISD

7.17%

Barrel%

9.23%

38.35%

Hard-hit%

43.06%

.340

xwOBA

.320

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant