CHC vs BAL — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballOriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Chicago

Cubs

52-40 · 25-21 away

Top 9th

Baltimore

Orioles

42-51 · 24-25 home

ESPN UnlmtdMLB.TV

Win probabilityTop 9th

Chicago CubsCHC

15%

Baltimore OriolesBAL

85%

Leverage 4.7 · high

⚡

Turning point · swung BAL +47%

Cubs challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Jeremiah Jackson doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Gunnar Henderson scores. Pete Alonso scores.

Biggest swing: Jackson doubled to center, Alonso scored and Henderson scored. Chicago Cubs challenged: call on the field was upheld. (+47% BAL)

How our call is holding up

On track

We called BAL 5–4Top 9th

Orioles lead 3–2 — tracking our call.
Live model has BAL at 85% (we called it medium confidence).

Our analysis

What to watchMedium confidence

Peterson faces Rogers in Baltimore showdown

David Peterson takes the mound for the Cubs, bringing a 4-7 record and a 6.75 ERA into Oriole Park. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they aim to improve their standings.
P. Crow-Armstrong leads the Cubs with a .293 batting average and 19 home runs, making him a key player to watch at the plate.
Trevor Rogers starts for the Orioles with a 6-7 record and a 4.70 ERA, looking to give his team a much-needed boost against a tough opponent.
P. Alonso leads the Orioles with 19 home runs and 60 RBIs, providing a powerful threat in the lineup as they face the Cubs' pitching.

Top hitters

CHC

AVG

.400

Justin Dean

Chicago Cubs

0-0

BAL

AVG

.302

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

CHC

Starter

David Peterson

Chicago Cubs · 4-7

5.0 IP, ER, 2 K, 4 BB

xwOBA 16th

6.45 ERA · 70 K · 1.64 WHIP

BAL

Starter

Trevor Rogers

Baltimore Orioles · 6-7

6.0 IP, ER, 4 K, 2 BB

xwOBA 48th

4.48 ERA · 69 K · 1.31 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	8	0
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2		3	3	1

Statcast

Hardest hit · CHC
S. Suzuki · Home Run
110.9 mph · 1.000 xBA
Hardest hit · BAL
G. Henderson · GIDP
107.3 mph · .620 xBA
Longest hit
S. Suzuki · Home Run
432 ft · 1.000 xBA
Best barrel
J. Jackson · Double
106.5 mph · .540 xBA
Fastest pitch
G. Hollowell · Sinker
96.7 mph

Scoring summary

O'Neill homered to center (398 feet).2nd Inning0-1
Suzuki homered to left (432 feet).6th Inning1-1
Suzuki doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.8th Inning2-1
Jackson doubled to center, Alonso scored and Henderson scored. Chicago Cubs challenged: call on the field was upheld.8th Inning2-3

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
P. Crow-Armstrong	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	16	.296	.387	.543
A. Bregman	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	17	.238	.336	.342
S. Suzuki	3-4	4	1	3	2	1	0	0	13	.266	.347	.467
J. Dean	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.400	.500	.800
C. Kelly	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	21	.278	.368	.397
M. Busch	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	18	.233	.367	.385
N. Hoerner	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	7	.240	.314	.337
I. Happ	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	14	.218	.323	.432
D. Swanson	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	6	.213	.297	.419
M. Amaya	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	.228	.355	.354

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
D. Peterson	5.0	2	1	1	4	2	1	77-41	6.45	77
G. Hollowell	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	0	28-15	3.38	28
C. Thielbar	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	6-5	4.44	6
T. Ferguson	0.1	0	2	2	0	1	0	9-4	7.45	9
R. Rolison	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	0	13-6	2.86	13

Team stats

CHCBAL

Hits

Runs

Home Runs

RBI

Stolen Bases

Walks

Strikeouts

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

CHCBAL

7.99%

Barrel%

8.45%

40.11%

Hard-hit%

42.6%

.330

xwOBA

.320

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant