CHC vs BAL — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballOriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Chicago

Cubs

52-40 · 24-21 away

Final

Baltimore

Orioles

42-51 · 24-24 home

MLB.TV

Top hitters

CHC

AVG

.293▲

BAL

AVG

.309

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

CHC

Starter

Matthew Boyd

Chicago Cubs · 4-1

6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 2 BB

xwOBA 30th

4.31 ERA · 44 K · 1.31 WHIP

BAL

Starter

Shane Baz

Baltimore Orioles · 4-9

6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 3 BB

xwOBA 33rd

4.21 ERA · 90 K · 1.37 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Cubs took down the Orioles 5-2 in a thrilling showdown at Camden Yards! The decisive edge came from the Cubs' powerful offense, which outshined the O's on the scoreboard.

The Cubs showcased their hitting prowess with a total of five runs, capitalizing on key opportunities to pull ahead early in the game.
Strong pitching from the Cubs kept the Orioles at bay, limiting their scoring chances and ensuring a comfortable lead.
This victory not only boosts the Cubs' morale but also solidifies their standing in the competitive race ahead.

Starters: Matthew Boyd vs Shane BazBatting average: T. Ward (.253)ERA: K. Bradish (3.75)

How our pick did

Pick to winOrioles to winMiss

Contact quality

CHC5 R · .335 xBA

BAL2 R · .336 xBA

CHC scored more despite the lower team xBA — BAL squared more up and had less to show for it.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

CHC win2nd in the NL Central, 6½ GB

Looking ahead

The Cubs sit 2nd in the NL Central, 6½ games back — coming off a loss, 7-3 over their last 10.
The Orioles sit 5th in the AL East, 12½ games back — coming off a win, 4-6 over their last 10.
CHC win series 2-1.
The Cubs are up next at CIN (Jul 10-12).
The Orioles are up next home vs KC (Jul 10-12).

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
CHC	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	5	10	1
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	6	0

Statcast

Hardest hit · BAL
P. Alonso · Single
111.9 mph · .840 xBA
Hardest hit · CHC
D. Swanson · Single
106.9 mph · .630 xBA
Longest hit
P. Alonso · Flyout
388 ft · .470 xBA
Best barrel
B. Alexander · Lineout
109 mph · .730 xBA
Fastest pitch
S. Baz · 4-Seam Fastball
98.7 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Matthew Boyd
CHC
+34%
Alex Bregman
CHC
+13%
Miguel Amaya
CHC
+12%

Scoring summary

Bregman singled to center, Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.3rd Inning1-0
Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Swanson scored, Amaya to third.5th Inning2-0
Bregman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong out at second. Chicago Cubs challenged: call on the field was overturned.5th Inning3-0
Busch hit sacrifice fly to left, Amaya scored.7th Inning4-0
Rutschman singled to right, Alexander scored and Basallo scored, Rutschman to second, Ward to second, Ward safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Suzuki.7th Inning4-2
Swanson singled to right, Hoerner scored.8th Inning5-2

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
P. Crow-Armstrong	2-5	5	0	2	1	0	1	23	.293	.383	.525
A. Bregman	2-5	5	0	2	2	0	0	15	.243	.341	.349
M. Busch	0-2	2	0	0	1	2	0	24	.232	.367	.388
S. Suzuki	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	12	.260	.343	.441
I. Happ	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	16	.216	.324	.435
N. Hoerner	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	14	.242	.314	.337
M. Conforto	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	15	.250	.342	.485
D. Swanson	2-4	4	1	2	1	0	0	15	.211	.298	.422
M. Amaya	2-3	3	3	2	0	1	1	14	.234	.362	.363

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC-ST	ERA	PC
M. Boyd	6.0	3	0	0	2	7	93-64	4.31	93
R. Rolison	0.2	2	2	2	1	2	27-16	2.91	27
J. Webb	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	7-5	3.26	7
T. Ferguson	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8-6	5.79	8
T. Thornton	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14-8	2.63	14

Win probability

CHC 100%BAL 0%

Win probability over timeBAL win %

Biggest swing: Rutschman singled to right, Alexander scored and Basallo scored, Rutschman to second, Ward to second, Ward safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Suzuki. (+14% BAL)

Team stats

CHCBAL

749

Hits

721

455

Runs

416

112

Home Runs

104

424

RBI

403

Stolen Bases

397

Walks

350

762

Strikeouts

832

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

CHCBAL

7.99%

Barrel%

8.45%

40.11%

Hard-hit%

42.6%

.330

xwOBA

.320

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant