CLE vs MIN — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballTarget Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

Cleveland

Guardians

Bot 9th

MLB.TVCLEGuardians.TVTwins.TV

Win probabilityBot 9th

Cleveland GuardiansCLE

96%

Minnesota TwinsMIN

Leverage 0.5 · low

⚡

Turning point · swung CLE +20%

Brayan Rocchio doubles (14) on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Patrick Bailey scores. Steven Kwan scores.

Biggest swing: Rocchio doubled to left, Kwan scored and Bailey scored. (+22% CLE)

How our call is holding up

At risk

We called MIN 5–4Bot 9th

Twins trail 2–5; they still have to answer.
Live model has MIN at 4% (we called it medium confidence).

Our analysis

What to watchMedium confidence

Gavin Williams leads Guardians against Twins

Gavin Williams takes the mound for the Guardians, boasting a solid 9-4 record and 123 strikeouts this season.
C. DeLauter, leading Cleveland with a .276 batting average and 41 RBIs, will be crucial for the Guardians' offensive push.
For the Twins, Byron Buxton, with 25 home runs, is a key power threat and will look to capitalize on any mistakes from Williams.
Mike Paredes, starting for Minnesota, seeks his first win as he faces a tough Guardians lineup, hoping to improve his 4.60 ERA.

Top hitters

CLE

AVG

.279▲

MIN

AVG

.296

Alex Jackson

Minnesota Twins

0-3

Sprint Speed 54thvs RHP .382

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

CLE

Starter

Gavin Williams

Cleveland Guardians · 9-4

7.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K, BB

xwOBA 30th

3.81 ERA · 134 K · 1.15 WHIP

MIN

Starter

Bailey Ober

Minnesota Twins · 6-3

5.0 IP, ER, 5 K, BB

xwOBA 39th

4.40 ERA · 51 K · 1.19 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
CLE	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	5	6	0
MIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	3	0

Statcast

Hardest hit · CLE
G. Arias · Home Run
110.8 mph · 1.000 xBA
Hardest hit · MIN
T. Larnach · Groundout
108.4 mph · .530 xBA
Longest hit
G. Arias · Home Run
442 ft · 1.000 xBA
Best barrel
R. Lewis · Home Run
103.7 mph · .590 xBA
Fastest pitch
G. Williams · 4-Seam Fastball
100.8 mph

Scoring summary

Arias homered to center (442 feet).2nd Inning1-0
Gray singled to right, Lewis scored, Keaschall to second, Roden to third.5th Inning1-1
DeLauter homered to right (394 feet).6th Inning2-1
Rocchio doubled to left, Kwan scored and Bailey scored.7th Inning4-1
Lewis homered to left (389 feet).7th Inning4-2
Bailey homered to right (384 feet).9th Inning5-2

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
T. Bazzana	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	0	20	.245	.336	.403
B. Rocchio	1-4	4	0	1	2	0	0	3	18	.272	.342	.400
C. DeLauter	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	0	13	.279	.345	.436
K. Manzardo	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	19	.216	.310	.367
K. Watson	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	.215	.250	.308
D. Fry	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	7	.203	.315	.375
P. Halpin	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	.167	.182	.222
G. Arias	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	2	15	.214	.258	.417
D. Schneemann	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	11	.212	.279	.335
P. Bailey	1-3	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	13	.181	.238	.269
S. Kwan	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	24	.220	.331	.275

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
G. Williams	7.0	3	2	2	1	11	1	103-73	3.81	103
H. Gaddis	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6-5	2.83	6
C. Smith	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	2.83	2

Team stats

CLEMIN

699

Hits

783

368

Runs

457

Home Runs

117

351

RBI

435

Stolen Bases

344

Walks

312

775

Strikeouts

768

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

CLEMIN

6.39%

Barrel%

8.83%

35.64%

Hard-hit%

37.83%

.310

xwOBA

.320

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant