NYY vs TB — MainMarket Sports · MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

New York

Yankees

50-42 · 27-22 away

Bot 9th

Tampa Bay

Rays

54-36 · 33-13 home

MLB.TVRays.TV

Win probabilityBot 9th

New York YankeesNYY

100%

Tampa Bay RaysTB

⚡

Turning point · swung NYY +17%

Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Ben Rice homers (27) on a fly ball to right field. Trent Grisham scores.

Biggest swing: Rice homered to right (367 feet), Grisham scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld. (+17% NYY)

How our call is holding up

At risk

We called TB 5–4Bot 9th

Rays trail 4–12; they still have to answer.
Live model has TB at 0% (we called it medium confidence).
Scoring is outrunning our 9-total call — 16 already.

Our analysis

What to watchMedium confidence

Rasmussen leads Rays against Yankees' Rice

Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for the Rays, boasting a solid 2.78 ERA and 96 strikeouts this season. The Yankees will rely on B.

Top hitters

NYY

AVG

.275

AVG

.326

Yandy Díaz

Tampa Bay Rays

1-4

xwOBA 87th

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

NYY

Starter

Paul Blackburn

New York Yankees · 2-1

2.0 IP, ER, 3 K, 0 BB

xwOBA 69th

2.31 ERA · 35 K · 1.14 WHIP

Starter

Drew Rasmussen

Tampa Bay Rays · 7-4

2.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

xwOBA 82nd

3.26 ERA · 98 K · 0.95 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
NYY	0	0	6	1	0	3	1	1	0	12	14	0
TB	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	9	1

Statcast

Hardest hit · TB
J. Caminero · Home Run
108.3 mph · 1.000 xBA
Hardest hit · NYY
T. Grisham · Single
105.3 mph · .710 xBA
Longest hit
J. Caminero · Home Run
438 ft · 1.000 xBA
Best barrel
B. Rice · Home Run
103.9 mph · .780 xBA
Fastest pitch
C. Doval · Sinker
100.9 mph

Scoring summary

Caminero homered to right center (438 feet).1st Inning0-1
McMahon doubled to right, Schuemann scored.3rd Inning1-1
Grisham singled to right, McMahon scored.3rd Inning2-1
Rice homered to right (367 feet), Grisham scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.3rd Inning4-1
Caballero singled to right, Domínguez scored, Bellinger to third.3rd Inning5-1
Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Bellinger scored.3rd Inning6-1
Caminero grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Fortes scored, Aranda out at second, Díaz to third.3rd Inning6-2
Mesa Jr. hit a ground rule double, Díaz scored.3rd Inning6-3
Wells homered to right (375 feet).4th Inning7-3
Rice homered to center (422 feet), Wells scored and Grisham scored.6th Inning10-3
Williamson singled to left, Simpson scored.6th Inning10-4
McMahon doubled to right, Schuemann scored.7th Inning11-4
Bellinger singled to center, Rice scored, Domínguez to third.8th Inning12-4

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
T. Grisham	2-5	5	2	2	1	0	0	0	18	.234	.334	.415
B. Rice	2-4	4	3	2	5	2	1	1	18	.275	.366	.590
J. Dominguez	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	1	1	19	.233	.276	.400
C. Bellinger	2-5	5	1	2	1	0	0	0	13	.247	.340	.414
J. Caballero	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1	16	.246	.300	.398
J. Chisholm Jr.	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	1	0	11	.221	.305	.388
M. Schuemann	2-4	4	2	2	0	0	0	1	11	.240	.406	.460
R. McMahon	2-5	5	1	2	2	0	0	2	27	.215	.276	.370
A. Wells	1-4	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	19	.151	.246	.242

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
P. Blackburn	2.0	2	1	1	0	3	1	35-24	2.31	35
J. Bird	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	0	15-8	4.60	15
R. Yarbrough	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	17-11	4.17	17
C. Doval	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	13-7	4.58	13
B. Headrick	1.2	3	1	1	0	3	0	25-19	1.57	25
A. Chivilli	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	22-16	1.35	22
T. Hill	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4-3	3.97	4

Team stats

NYYTB

711

Hits

771

436

Runs

406

132

Home Runs

415

RBI

387

Stolen Bases

352

Walks

320

835

Strikeouts

644

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

NYYTB

10.61%

Barrel%

4.83%

42.84%

Hard-hit%

34.16%

.330

xwOBA

.310

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant