MIL vs STL — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

Milwaukee

Brewers

Final

MLB.TVBrewers.TVCardinals.TV

Top hitters

MIL

AVG

.331▼

STL

AVG

.292

Jordan Walker

St. Louis Cardinals

2-4

xwOBA 91stvs LHP .322

2Alec Burleson0-3.275▼
3Nelson Velázquez1-4 · HR · 2 RBI.269▼
4José Fermín1-3.269

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

MIL

Starter

Robert Gasser

Milwaukee Brewers · 2-3

7.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, BB

xwOBA 71st

4.15 ERA · 40 K · 1.18 WHIP

STL

Starter

Hunter Dobbins

St. Louis Cardinals · 1-1

5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB

Fastball Velo 68th

4.03 ERA · 23 K · 1.39 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Brewers dominated the Cardinals, winning 10-2 in a decisive performance! A standout offensive showing powered by the Brewers' batters made all the difference in this matchup.

The Brewers' offense exploded for 10 runs, showcasing their power and precision at the plate against the Cardinals' pitching staff.
With a commanding lead, the Brewers capitalized on scoring opportunities, demonstrating a clear edge in offensive execution throughout the game.
The Cardinals struggled to contain the Brewers' lineup, ultimately falling behind in a game that highlighted the Brewers' dominance in this contest.

Starters: Robert Gasser vs Hunter DobbinsBatting average: J. Walker (.290)ERA: M. McGreevy (3.12)

How our pick did

Pick to winCardinals to winMiss

Contact quality

MIL10 R · .380 xBA

STL2 R · .295 xBA

The scoreboard matched the contact — MIL both hit it harder and scored more.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

MIL win1st in the NL Central, +6½

Looking ahead

The Brewers lead the NL Central by 6½ — coming off a loss, 7-3 over their last 10.
The Cardinals sit 3rd in the NL Central, 9½ games back — coming off a win, 5-5 over their last 10.
MIL leads series 3-0 — they meet again Jul 9.
The Brewers are up next at STL (Jul 9), then at PIT.
The Cardinals are up next home vs MIL (Jul 9), then home vs ATL.

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
MIL	0	0	1	0	2	0	7	0	0	10	11	0
STL	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	4	0

Statcast

Hardest hit · STL
N. Velázquez · Home Run
110.4 mph · .980 xBA
Hardest hit · MIL
G. Mitchell · Lineout
108.2 mph · .780 xBA
Longest hit
J. Ortiz · Home Run
415 ft · .900 xBA
Best barrel
J. Ortiz · Home Run
104.8 mph · .900 xBA
Fastest pitch
G. Graceffo · 4-Seam Fastball
96 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Luis Lara
MIL
+17%
Nelson Velázquez
STL
+14%
Joey Ortiz
MIL
+14%

Scoring summary

Yelich grounded out to shortstop, Pratt scored.3rd Inning1-0
Lara singled to right, Pratt scored and Sánchez scored, Lara to second, Ortiz to third.5th Inning3-0
Velázquez homered to center (403 feet), Walker scored.6th Inning3-2
Ortiz homered to left center (415 feet).7th Inning4-2
Turang doubled to center, Lara scored.7th Inning5-2
Sánchez singled to left, Turang scored and Vaughn scored, Mitchell to third.7th Inning7-2
Chourio singled to center, Mitchell scored, Sánchez to second.7th Inning8-2
Pratt doubled to left, Chourio scored and Sánchez scored.7th Inning10-2

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
C. Yelich	0-5	5	0	0	1	0	0	2	30	.241	.323	.382
L. Lara	1-4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0	21	.250	.400	.250
B. Turang	2-5	5	1	2	1	0	0	0	14	.267	.360	.455
A. Vaughn	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	1	1	24	.331	.420	.504
J. Bauers	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	18	.268	.366	.500
G. Mitchell	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.272	.365	.460
G. Sanchez	1-3	3	2	1	2	0	2	1	21	.221	.371	.449
S. Frelick	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	.237	.305	.324
J. Chourio	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	6	.286	.342	.510
C. Pratt	2-4	4	2	2	2	0	1	0	19	.217	.342	.283
J. Ortiz	2-5	5	1	2	1	1	0	1	13	.224	.292	.301

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
R. Gasser	7.2	4	2	2	1	4	1	94-66	4.15	94
C. Yoho	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	10-8	3.60	10

Win probability

MIL 100%STL 0%

Win probability over timeSTL win %

Biggest swing: Lara singled to right, Pratt scored and Sánchez scored, Lara to second, Ortiz to third. (+18% MIL)

Team stats

MILSTL

769

Hits

732

453

Runs

406

Home Runs

427

RBI

394

Stolen Bases

366

Walks

290

731

Strikeouts

677

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

MILSTL

7.94%

Barrel%

8.44%

40.18%

Hard-hit%

42.5%

.320

xwOBA

.330

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant