CIN vs MIL — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballAmerican Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Cincinnati

Reds

Final

MLB.TV

Top hitters

CIN

AVG

.274▼

Elly De La Cruz

Cincinnati Reds

2-4

xwOBA 84thvs LHP .341

MIL

AVG

.339▼

Andrew Vaughn

Milwaukee Brewers

1-3 · 2B

Max Exit Velo 40thvs LHP .407

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

CIN

Starter

Andrew Abbott

Cincinnati Reds · 5-4

5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 5 BB

xwOBA 23rd

3.88 ERA · 73 K · 1.44 WHIP

MIL

Starter

Shane Drohan

Milwaukee Brewers · 3-2

5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, BB

xwOBA 70th

3.12 ERA · 59 K · 1.23 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Brewers clinched a 4-2 victory over the Reds at American Family Field! A stellar performance at the plate propelled Milwaukee to the win, showcasing their offensive strength.

The Brewers' offense was on fire, capitalizing on key moments to score four runs and secure the victory.
Milwaukee's pitching was solid, limiting the Reds to just two runs, which proved crucial in this tight contest.
With this win, the Brewers continue to bolster their position in the standings, making a statement as they push for a strong finish.

Starters: Andrew Abbott vs Shane DrohanBatting average: W. Contreras (.297)ERA: J. Misiorowski (1.45)

How our pick did

Pick to winMIL to winHit ✓

Contact quality

CIN2 R · .300 xBA

MIL4 R · .289 xBA

MIL scored more despite the lower team xBA — CIN squared more up and had less to show for it.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

MIL win1st in the NL Central, +6½

Looking ahead

The Brewers lead the NL Central by 6½ — coming off a loss, 7-3 over their last 10.
The Reds sit 5th in the NL Central, 15½ games back — coming off a win, 3-7 over their last 10.
MIL wins series 3-1.
The Brewers are up next at STL (Jul 9), then at PIT.
The Reds are up next home vs CHC (Jul 10-12).

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
CIN	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	2
MIL	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0		4	8	0

Statcast

Hardest hit · CIN
E. Suárez · Double
111.1 mph · .700 xBA
Hardest hit · MIL
B. Turang · Double
108.5 mph · .890 xBA
Longest hit
G. Mitchell · Double
406 ft · .880 xBA
Best barrel
E. De La Cruz · Single
109.2 mph · .670 xBA
Fastest pitch
A. Uribe · Sinker
100.6 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Garrett Mitchell
MIL
+31%
Abner Uribe
MIL
+15%
Andrew Abbott
CIN
+12%

Scoring summary

Contreras grounded out to second, Chourio scored, Turang to third.1st Inning0-1
Bauers hit sacrifice fly to left, Turang scored.1st Inning0-2
Marte homered to left (378 feet), Stephenson scored.2nd Inning2-2
Mitchell tripled to center, Vaughn scored.7th Inning2-3
Mitchell scored on Burke wild pitch.7th Inning2-4
Mitchell scored on Burke wild pitch.7th Inning2-4
Mitchell scored on Burke wild pitch.7th Inning2-4

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
E. De La Cruz	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	2	18	.274	.341	.490
S. Stewart	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	10	.257	.341	.464
S. Steer	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	17	.236	.313	.415
E. Suarez	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	13	.206	.276	.373
T. Stephenson	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	1	13	.230	.318	.368
N. Marte	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	0	11	.200	.259	.390
I. Johnson	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	.000	.000	.000
J. Bleday	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	.236	.346	.493
M. McLain	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	10	.196	.299	.338
E. Arroyo	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	9	.268	.321	.310

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC-ST	ERA	PC
A. Abbott	5.0	5	2	2	5	3	96-53	3.88	96
T. Antone	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16-9	2.59	16
B. Burke	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	26-15	3.12	26
P. Johnson	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15-11	4.32	15
E. Pagan	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	8-4	6.28	8

Win probability

CIN 0%MIL 100%

Win probability over timeMIL win %

Biggest swing: Stephenson grounded into double play, shortstop to first to catcher to third to shortstop, Suárez to third, Steer out at home in rundown. (+24% MIL)

Team stats

CINMIL

640

Hits

718

355

Runs

430

102

Home Runs

336

RBI

406

Stolen Bases

315

Walks

347

793

Strikeouts

686

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

CINMIL

10.13%

Barrel%

7.94%

39.52%

Hard-hit%

40.18%

.320

xwOBA

.320

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant