MIN vs HOU — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballDaikin Park · Houston, Texas

Minnesota

Twins

Final

MLB.TVTwins.TV

Top hitters

MIN

AVG

.289

HOU

AVG

.308▼

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

MIN

Starter

Zebby Matthews

Minnesota Twins · 4-5

7.0 IP, ER, 7 K, BB

xwOBA 34th

4.15 ERA · 46 K · 1.14 WHIP

HOU

Starter

Peter Lambert

Houston Astros · 6-5

5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K, 3 BB

xwOBA 69th

3.51 ERA · 68 K · 1.18 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Twins edged out the Astros 5-4 in a thrilling showdown at Daikin Park! A standout performance from their lineup made all the difference in this nail-biter.

The Twins showcased their offensive prowess, capitalizing on key moments to secure the win.
With a strong performance from their hitters, the Twins managed to outlast the Astros in a tight contest, demonstrating their resilience.
This victory not only boosts the Twins' confidence but also tightens the race in their division, making every game count as we head deeper into the season.

Starters: Zebby Matthews vs Peter Lambert

How our pick did

Pick to winHOU to winMiss

Contact quality

MIN5 R · .279 xBA

HOU4 R · .395 xBA

MIN scored more despite the lower team xBA — HOU squared more up and had less to show for it.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

MIN win3rd in the AL Central, 2 GB

Looking ahead

The Twins sit 3rd in the AL Central, 2 games back — coming off a loss, 7-3 over their last 10.
The Astros sit 3rd in the AL West, 1½ games back — coming off a loss, 5-5 over their last 10.
MIN wins series 2-1.
The Twins are up next home vs LAA (Jul 10-12).
The Astros are up next at TEX (Jul 10-12).

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
MIN	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	0	0	5	8	0
HOU	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	4	6	1

Statcast

Hardest hit · HOU
T. Trammell · Single
111.3 mph · .700 xBA
Hardest hit · MIN
V. Caratini · Home Run
107 mph · .940 xBA
Longest hit
C. Smith · Home Run
429 ft · .950 xBA
Best barrel
C. Smith · Home Run
110.6 mph · .800 xBA
Fastest pitch
N. Pearson · 4-Seam Fastball
99.3 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Zebby Matthews
MIN
+26%
Victor Caratini
MIN
+13%
Cam Smith
HOU
+12%

Scoring summary

Lewis homered to left (375 feet).4th Inning1-0
Caratini homered to center (426 feet).4th Inning2-0
Smith homered to left (408 feet).5th Inning2-1
Bell homered to right center (413 feet), Lee scored.6th Inning4-1
Clemens grounded out to shortstop, Keaschall scored, Lee to second.7th Inning5-1
Trammell homered to right (412 feet), Paredes scored.9th Inning5-3
Smith homered to left center (429 feet).9th Inning5-4

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
T. Larnach	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1	20	.286	.377	.432
B. Lee	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	2	14	.251	.306	.445
K. Clemens	0-5	5	0	0	1	0	0	2	17	.237	.302	.467
J. Bell	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	0	10	.243	.300	.403
R. Lewis	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	2	16	.214	.287	.385
V. Caratini	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	2	0	20	.241	.336	.379
R. Kreidler	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	21	.289	.361	.515
T. Gray	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	14	.243	.286	.358
L. Keaschall	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	16	.245	.329	.318

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
Z. Matthews	7.0	4	1	1	1	7	1	89-59	4.15	89
T. Adams	1.2	1	2	2	2	1	1	35-19	7.06	35
Y. Gomez	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	7-5	3.66	7

Win probability

MIN 100%HOU 0%

Win probability over timeHOU win %

Biggest swing: Bell homered to right center (413 feet), Lee scored. (+19% MIN)

Team stats

MINHOU

Hits

Runs

Home Runs

RBI

Stolen Bases

Walks

Strikeouts

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

MINHOU

8.83%

Barrel%

9.39%

37.83%

Hard-hit%

39.86%

.320

xwOBA

.330

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant