STL vs CHC — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballWrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

St. Louis

Cardinals

48-43 · 24-19 away

Final

Chicago

Cubs

52-41 · 27-19 home

Peacock

Top hitters

STL

AVG

.292

CHC

AVG

.292▲

2Carson Kellyvs LHP .3201-2.282
3Seiya Suzukivs LHP .3070-4.264
4Pedro Ramírezvs LHP .3330-1 · 1 RBI.250

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

STL

Starter

Matthew Liberatore

St. Louis Cardinals · 4-6

5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

xwOBA 10th

5.34 ERA · 82 K · 1.53 WHIP

CHC

Starter

Javier Assad

Chicago Cubs · 6-1

4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

xwOBA 28th

4.15 ERA · 33 K · 1.10 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Cubs edged out the Cardinals 6-4 in a thrilling contest at Wrigley Field! The Cubs' offense shined, powering through with key hits that ultimately sealed the victory.

The Cubs showed their offensive might by scoring six runs, showcasing their ability to capitalize on opportunities.
With a strong performance at the plate, the Cubs outpaced the Cardinals, making the most of their chances to secure the win.
This victory keeps the Cubs competitive in the standings, emphasizing their push as they aim for postseason positioning.

Starters: Matthew Liberatore vs Javier AssadBatting average: P. Crow-Armstrong (.289)ERA: S. Imanaga (4.28)

How our pick did

Pick to winCubs to winHit ✓

Contact quality

STL4 R · .311 xBA

CHC6 R · .268 xBA

CHC scored more despite the lower team xBA — STL squared more up and had less to show for it.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

CHC win2nd in the NL Central, 6½ GB

Looking ahead

The Cubs sit 2nd in the NL Central, 6½ games back — coming off a loss, 7-3 over their last 10.
The Cardinals sit 3rd in the NL Central, 9½ games back — coming off a win, 5-5 over their last 10.
STL wins series 2-1.
The Cubs are up next at CIN (Jul 10-12).
The Cardinals are up next home vs MIL (Jul 9), then home vs ATL.

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
STL	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	4	7	2
CHC	2	0	0	0	0	4	0	0		6	7	0

Statcast

Hardest hit · STL
J. Walker · Home Run
109.2 mph · .980 xBA
Hardest hit · CHC
D. Swanson · Single
102.5 mph · .430 xBA
Longest hit
J. Walker · Home Run
409 ft · .980 xBA
Fastest pitch
M. Svanson · Sinker
97.4 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Jordan Walker
STL
+32%
Javier Assad
CHC
+19%
Michael Busch
CHC
+19%

Scoring summary

Bregman doubled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.1st Inning0-1
Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Bregman scored, Busch to second, Kelly to third.1st Inning0-2
Walker homered to left center (409 feet), Wetherholt scored and Burleson scored.6th Inning3-2
Hoerner singled to right, Kelly scored, Busch to second.6th Inning3-3
Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Busch scored, Hoerner to second, Swanson second, Hoerner safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Fermín.6th Inning3-4
Ramirez hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored on throwing error by right fielder Walker.6th Inning3-6
Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Wetherholt scored.8th Inning4-6

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
J. Wetherholt	2-4	4	2	2	0	0	0	0	20	.269	.364	.416
I. Herrera	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	22	.256	.393	.401
A. Burleson	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	15	.281	.345	.473
J. Walker	1-2	2	1	1	4	1	1	0	18	.292	.352	.529
L. Nootbaar	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	.273	.356	.420
M. Winn	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	19	.250	.323	.342
N. Church	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	11	.255	.300	.417
J. Fermin	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	19	.265	.318	.390
B. Torres	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	.235	.304	.510
N. Velazquez	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	.273	.365	.523

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC-ST	ERA	PC
M. Liberatore	5.0	4	4	3	2	3	78-44	5.34	78
M. Svanson	1.2	3	2	0	0	2	39-24	6.69	39
R. Fernandez	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	15-10	1.35	15

Win probability

STL 0%CHC 100%

Win probability over timeCHC win %

Biggest swing: Walker homered to left center (409 feet), Wetherholt scored and Burleson scored. (+33% STL)

Team stats

STLCHC

718

Hits

742

399

Runs

449

Home Runs

112

387

RBI

420

Stolen Bases

285

Walks

395

666

Strikeouts

755

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

STLCHC

8.44%

Barrel%

7.99%

42.5%

Hard-hit%

40.11%

.330

xwOBA

.330

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant