HOU vs WSH — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballNationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Houston

Astros

46-49 · 22-24 away

Final

Washington

Nationals

48-46 · 19-27 home

MLB.TVNationals.TV

Top hitters

HOU

AVG

.318▼

WSH

AVG

.281▲

Luis García Jr.

Washington Nationals

1-5 · 2B · 1 RBI

xwOBA 85th

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

HOU

Starter

Mike Burrows

Houston Astros · 4-9

4.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

xwOBA 25th

5.99 ERA · 75 K · 1.55 WHIP

WSH

Starter

Miles Mikolas

Washington Nationals · 3-7

6.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

xwOBA 20th

5.78 ERA · 50 K · 1.33 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

In a nail-biting showdown, the Nationals edged out the Astros 12-11! A standout offensive performance propelled the Nats to victory, showcasing their explosive hitting throughout the game.

The Nationals showcased their offensive firepower, scoring a whopping 12 runs, which proved decisive in this high-scoring battle at Nationals Park.
With a total of 23 hits between both teams, the Nats capitalized on their opportunities, highlighting their clutch batting in key situations.
The narrow victory keeps the Nationals competitive in the standings, demonstrating their resilience against a formidable opponent.

Starters: Mike Burrows vs Miles MikolasBatting average: L. Garcia Jr. (.282)ERA: F. Griffin (2.87)

How our pick did

Pick to winAstros to winMiss

Contact quality

HOU11 R · .376 xBA

WSH12 R · .396 xBA

The scoreboard matched the contact — WSH both hit it harder and scored more.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

WSH win4th in the NL East, 7 GB

Looking ahead

The Nationals sit 4th in the NL East, 7 games back — coming off a win, 6-4 over their last 10.
The Astros sit 3rd in the AL West, 2 games back — coming off a loss, 5-5 over their last 10.
WSH wins series 2-1.
The Nationals are up next home vs NYY (Jul 10-12).
The Astros are up next at TEX (Jul 10-12).

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
HOU	1	3	2	0	0	1	0	4	0	11	12	2
WSH	1	0	5	0	6	0	0	0		12	13	0

Statcast

Hardest hit · WSH
J. Wood · Home Run
109.8 mph · 1.000 xBA
Hardest hit · HOU
Y. Alvarez · Single
108.8 mph · .670 xBA
Longest hit
J. Wood · Home Run
446 ft · 1.000 xBA
Best barrel
C. Abrams · Home Run
108.1 mph · .880 xBA
Fastest pitch
N. Pearson · 4-Seam Fastball
99.1 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Curtis Mead
WSH
+31%
James Wood
WSH
+20%
Clayton Beeter
WSH
+19%

Scoring summary

Walker doubled to center, Paredes scored.1st Inning1-0
Mead doubled to center, Wood scored.1st Inning1-1
Altuve homered to left (372 feet), Shewmake scored and Matthews scored.2nd Inning4-1
Diaz homered to left (389 feet), Smith scored.3rd Inning6-1
García Jr. doubled to left, Nuñez scored, Wood to third.3rd Inning6-2
Mead singled to left, Wood scored, García Jr. to third.3rd Inning6-3
Abrams homered to right (392 feet), García Jr. scored and Mead scored.3rd Inning6-6
Mead homered to left center (404 feet).5th Inning6-7
Millas hit sacrifice fly to left, Abrams scored.5th Inning6-8
Wood homered to center (446 feet), Crews scored, Young scored and Nuñez scored.5th Inning6-12
Shewmake grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Smith scored, Diaz out at second.6th Inning7-12
Shewmake doubled to right, Wade Jr. scored, Diaz to third.8th Inning8-12
Matthews homered to left (363 feet), Diaz scored and Shewmake scored.8th Inning11-12

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
J. Altuve	1-5	5	1	1	3	1	0	1	13	.235	.312	.394
Y. Alvarez	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	2	26	.318	.426	.630
I. Paredes	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	21	.251	.346	.418
C. Walker	2-5	5	0	2	1	0	0	0	14	.240	.312	.472
L. Wade Jr.	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	19	.190	.261	.429
C. Smith	2-3	3	2	2	0	0	1	0	21	.225	.298	.382
Y. Diaz	2-4	4	2	2	2	1	0	0	10	.242	.267	.386
B. Shewmake	2-4	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	15	.256	.272	.423
B. Matthews	2-4	4	2	2	3	1	0	1	16	.197	.249	.338

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
M. Burrows	4.1	9	10	7	2	3	2	83-56	5.99	83
A. Blubaugh	1.2	3	2	2	0	3	1	33-22	3.57	33
N. Pearson	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	13-7	3.79	13
E. De Los Santos	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	19-10	4.65	19

Win probability

HOU 0%WSH 100%

Win probability over timeWSH win %

Biggest swing: Altuve homered to left (372 feet), Shewmake scored and Matthews scored. (+27% HOU)

Team stats

HOUWSH

745

Hits

776

413

Runs

485

122

Home Runs

125

395

RBI

461

Stolen Bases

302

Walks

307

754

Strikeouts

755

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

HOUWSH

9.39%

Barrel%

8.66%

39.86%

Hard-hit%

38.78%

.330

xwOBA

.330

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant