HOU vs DET — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballComerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Houston

Astros

46-49 · 22-23 away

Final

Detroit

Tigers

43-50 · 23-21 home

MLB.TVTigers.TV

Top hitters

HOU

AVG

.311▼

DET

AVG

.333▼

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

HOU

Starter

Hunter Brown

Houston Astros · 1-0

6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB

xwOBA 72nd

1.78 ERA · 32 K · 1.18 WHIP

DET

Starter

Jack Flaherty

Detroit Tigers · 1-8

5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K, 3 BB

xwOBA 42nd

4.97 ERA · 87 K · 1.53 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Astros took down the Tigers 7-5 in a thrilling finish at Comerica Park! Houston's offensive firepower, with a key standout performance, propelled them to victory.

The Astros showcased their power at the plate, scoring seven runs and outpacing the Tigers in a nail-biter.
With crucial hits in key moments, Houston's lineup proved too much for Detroit's pitching staff, leading to a decisive edge in run production.
This win tightens Houston's grip in the standings, keeping them in the hunt as they continue to battle for playoff positioning.

Starters: Hunter Brown vs Jack FlahertyBatting average: R. Greene (.290)ERA: K. Montero (3.39)

How our pick did

Pick to winHOU to winHit ✓

Contact quality

HOU7 R · .235 xBA

DET5 R · .339 xBA

HOU scored more despite the lower team xBA — DET squared more up and had less to show for it.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

HOU win3rd in the AL West, 2 GB

Looking ahead

The Astros sit 3rd in the AL West, 2 games back — coming off a loss, 5-5 over their last 10.
The Tigers sit 4th in the AL Central, 4½ games back — winners of 5 straight, 8-2 over their last 10.
HOU wins series 3-1.
The Astros are up next at TEX (Jul 10-12).
The Tigers are up next home vs PHI (Jul 10-12).

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H	E
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	4	7	7	1
DET	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	5	9	1

Statcast

Hardest hit · HOU
J. Peña · Single
105.8 mph · .670 xBA
Hardest hit · DET
Z. McKinstry · GIDP
104.8 mph · .170 xBA
Longest hit
R. Delgado · Home Run
409 ft · .440 xBA
Best barrel
S. Torkelson · Home Run
103.6 mph · .770 xBA
Fastest pitch
H. Brown · 4-Seam Fastball
98.1 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Isaac Paredes
HOU
+45%
Jack Flaherty
DET
+29%
Christian Walker
HOU
+19%

Scoring summary

McKinstry homered to right center (386 feet), Carpenter scored.2nd Inning0-2
McGonigle scored on error, Greene safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Delgado.5th Inning0-3
Delgado homered to right (409 feet), Meyers scored.7th Inning2-3
Paredes homered to left (402 feet).8th Inning3-3
Paredes singled to right, Peña scored, Alvarez to second.10th Inning4-3
Walker homered to left (394 feet), Alvarez scored and Paredes scored.10th Inning7-3
Torkelson homered to right center (379 feet), Greene scored.10th Inning7-5

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
J. Pena	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	4	25	.295	.356	.443
Y. Alvarez	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	21	.311	.426	.613
I. Paredes	3-5	5	2	3	2	1	0	0	17	.256	.350	.428
C. Walker	1-4	4	1	1	3	1	1	1	25	.243	.313	.479
J. Loperfido	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	12	.221	.324	.347
C. Smith	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	12	.218	.295	.364
Y. Diaz	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	22	.244	.268	.363
T. Trammell	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	.264	.333	.414
B. Matthews	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	13	.193	.243	.323
J. Meyers	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	12	.212	.271	.326
R. Delgado	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	1	10	.280	.308	.400

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
H. Brown	6.0	5	3	2	2	4	1	103-60	1.78	103
B. Abreu	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	0	15-7	6.00	15
S. Okert	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3-1	2.48	3
B. King	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	8-6	2.25	8
J. Hader	1.0	0	0	0	3	2	0	29-16	0.75	29
E. De Los Santos	1.0	2	2	1	1	1	1	25-13	4.91	25

Win probability

HOU 100%DET 0%

Win probability over timeDET win %

Biggest swing: Paredes homered to left (402 feet). (+28% HOU)

Team stats

HOUDET

694

Hits

645

380

Runs

339

109

Home Runs

363

RBI

324

Stolen Bases

282

Walks

301

691

Strikeouts

716

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

HOUDET

9.39%

Barrel%

9.23%

39.86%

Hard-hit%

40.94%

.330

xwOBA

.330

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant