CIN vs PIT — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballPNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Cincinnati

Reds

Final

ESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVReds.TV

Top hitters

CIN

AVG

.268▼

PIT

AVG

.304

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

CIN

Starter

Chase Burns

Cincinnati Reds · 9-1

6.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 K, 0 BB

xwOBA 82nd

2.36 ERA · 112 K · 1.08 WHIP

PIT

Starter

Jared Jones

Pittsburgh Pirates · 1-1

4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, BB

xwOBA 67th

5.76 ERA · 25 K · 1.44 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Reds edged out the Pirates with a thrilling 9-7 victory at PNC Park! The standout performance by the Reds' offense, scoring early and often, was the key to their success.

The Reds' offense was on fire, outpacing the Pirates with a relentless attack that kept the pressure on throughout the game.
With a strong showing at the plate, the Reds capitalized on their opportunities, proving to be the more effective team in clutch situations.
This victory not only boosts the Reds' momentum but also tightens the race in the standings, showcasing their determination as playoff contenders.

Starters: Chase Burns vs Jared JonesBatting average: N. Gonzales (.295)ERA: B. Ashcraft (3.07)

How our pick did

Pick to winPIT to winMiss

Contact quality

CIN9 R · .360 xBA

PIT7 R · .390 xBA

CIN scored more despite the lower team xBA — PIT squared more up and had less to show for it.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

CIN win5th in the NL Central, 16½ GB

Looking ahead

The Reds sit 5th in the NL Central, 16½ games back — coming off a loss, 3-7 over their last 10.
The Pirates sit 4th in the NL Central, 12½ games back — losers of 2 straight, 5-5 over their last 10.
CIN wins series 2-1.
The Reds are up next home vs CHC (Jul 10-12).
The Pirates are up next home vs MIL (Jul 10-12).

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
CIN	1	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	3	9	10	0
PIT	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	1	0	7	11	2

Statcast

Hardest hit · PIT
B. Lowe · Sac Fly
107.8 mph · .710 xBA
Hardest hit · CIN
E. De La Cruz · Groundout
107 mph · .420 xBA
Longest hit
B. Lowe · Home Run
396 ft · .840 xBA
Best barrel
B. Lowe · Home Run
107.4 mph · .840 xBA
Fastest pitch
J. Jones · 4-Seam Fastball
99.8 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Eugenio Suárez
CIN
+70%
Esmerlyn Valdez
PIT
+29%
Jared Triolo
PIT
+23%

Scoring summary

Stewart homered to right (372 feet).1st Inning1-0
Stewart reached on infield single to third, Trevino scored.3rd Inning2-0
Lowe homered to right (396 feet), Triolo scored and Mangum scored.3rd Inning2-3
Triolo singled to left, Rodríguez scored.4th Inning2-4
Arroyo doubled to left, Myers scored.5th Inning3-4
Arroyo scored on error, Stewart safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Lowe.5th Inning4-4
Trevino singled to right, Marte scored and Steer scored, Myers to third.6th Inning6-4
Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Triolo scored.7th Inning6-5
O'Hearn singled to right, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to third.7th Inning6-6
Valdez homered to right center (381 feet).8th Inning6-7
Suárez homered to right (344 feet), Arroyo scored and Bleday scored.9th Inning9-7

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
E. De La Cruz	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	20	.268	.338	.484
S. Stewart	2-5	5	1	2	2	1	0	1	22	.252	.341	.454
J. Bleday	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	19	.240	.348	.510
E. Suarez	1-4	4	1	1	3	1	1	2	23	.210	.276	.379
N. Lowe	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	12	.254	.347	.475
S. Steer	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	8	.242	.319	.429
N. Marte	0-5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	25	.198	.258	.384
D. Myers	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	11	.252	.356	.374
J. Trevino	2-4	4	1	2	2	0	0	1	15	.204	.220	.245
E. Arroyo	2-2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	9	.263	.328	.316

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
C. Burns	6.0	9	5	5	0	10	1	93-66	2.36	93
S. Moll	0.2	1	1	1	2	0	0	20-10	4.01	20
T. Antone	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	6-4	2.35	6
C. Ferguson	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	14-10	1.84	14
C. Petty	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12-6	3.72	12

Win probability

CIN 100%PIT 0%

Win probability over timePIT win %

Biggest swing: Suárez homered to right (344 feet), Arroyo scored and Bleday scored. (+74% CIN)

Team stats

CINPIT

607

Hits

729

337

Runs

413

Home Runs

319

RBI

395

Stolen Bases

304

Walks

302

758

Strikeouts

760

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

CINPIT

10.13%

Barrel%

7.77%

39.52%

Hard-hit%

40.6%

.320

xwOBA

.320

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant