HOU vs TOR — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballRogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Houston

Astros

46-49 · 17-22 away

Final

Toronto

Blue Jays

44-49 · 22-18 home

ESPN UnlmtdMLB.TV

Top hitters

HOU

AVG

.323▼

TOR

AVG

.304▼

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

HOU

Starter

Hunter Brown

Houston Astros · 1-0

3.0 IP, ER, 4 K, 2 BB

xwOBA 72nd

1.40 ERA · 28 K · 1.19 WHIP

TOR

Starter

Dylan Cease

Toronto Blue Jays · 4-3

5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 4 BB

xwOBA 92nd

2.75 ERA · 118 K · 1.19 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Blue Jays take down the Astros 4-2 in a solid home victory at Rogers Centre! Toronto shines with a powerful offense and flawless defense.

The Blue Jays dominated the field with 11 hits, showcasing a potent offense that kept the pressure on Houston throughout the game.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and K. Okamoto were standout performers, combining for four hits and three RBIs, with Okamoto launching a crucial home run.
With this win, Toronto moves to an even record of 39-39, while the Astros struggle at 37-43, leaving them searching for answers in a tough season.

Starters: Hunter Brown vs Dylan CeaseBatting average: E. Clement (.292)ERA: K. Gausman (4.04)

How our pick did

Pick to winTOR to winHit ✓
SpreadLean TOR -131Miss
TotalOver 7Miss

Contact quality

HOU2 R · .224 xBA

TOR4 R · .349 xBA

The scoreboard matched the contact — TOR both hit it harder and scored more.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

TOR win3rd in the AL East, 11 GB

Looking ahead

The Blue Jays sit 3rd in the AL East, 11 games back — winners of 2 straight, 5-5 over their last 10.
The Astros sit 3rd in the AL West, 1½ games back — coming off a loss, 5-5 over their last 10.
HOU wins series 2-1.
The Blue Jays are up next at SD (Jul 10-12).
The Astros are up next at TEX (Jul 10-12).

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
HOU	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	5	1
TOR	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	1		4	11	0

Statcast

Hardest hit · TOR
G. Springer · Single
105.4 mph · .570 xBA
Hardest hit · HOU
C. Walker · GIDP
102.4 mph · .210 xBA
Longest hit
K. Okamoto · Home Run
388 ft · .580 xBA
Best barrel
K. Okamoto · Home Run
101.9 mph · .580 xBA
Fastest pitch
L. Varland · 4-Seam Fastball
100 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Kazuma Okamoto
TOR
+24%
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
+18%
Braydon Fisher
TOR
+16%

Scoring summary

Paredes singled to left, Peña scored, Alvarez to second.1st Inning1-0
Okamoto homered to left center (388 feet).2nd Inning1-1
Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Giménez scored.4th Inning1-2
Altuve singled to right, Alvarez scored, Walker to third.6th Inning2-2
Straw hit sacrifice fly to left, Varsho scored, Okamoto to third.7th Inning2-3
Kirk hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored.8th Inning2-4

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
J. Pena	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	3	.286	.345	.453
B. Matthews	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	8	.209	.258	.350
Y. Alvarez	1-2	2	1	1	0	2	1	25	.323	.431	.639
C. Walker	0-3	3	0	0	0	1	2	20	.238	.312	.476
I. Paredes	1-3	3	0	1	1	1	1	21	.247	.350	.417
J. Altuve	1-3	3	0	1	1	1	1	21	.236	.311	.398
Y. Diaz	0-3	3	0	0	0	1	0	14	.237	.264	.342
J. Loperfido	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	13	.229	.330	.313
J. Meyers	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	12	.205	.263	.320
T. Trammell	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	.273	.333	.364
R. Delgado	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	6	.286	.286	.286

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
H. Brown	3.0	4	1	1	2	4	1	85-54	1.40	85
A. Blubaugh	2.0	2	1	1	2	1	0	38-20	3.81	38
E. De Los Santos	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	0	19-14	4.32	19
B. King	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	11-5	2.45	11
L. VanWey	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	16-11	2.25	16

Win probability

HOU 0%TOR 100%

Win probability over timeTOR win %

Biggest swing: Walker grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Alvarez out at second, Matthews to third. (+25% TOR)

Team stats

HOUTOR

645

Hits

643

356

Runs

316

103

Home Runs

341

RBI

303

Stolen Bases

261

Walks

214

647

Strikeouts

562

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

HOUTOR

9.39%

Barrel%

6.63%

39.86%

Hard-hit%

36.1%

.330

xwOBA

.310

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant