HOU vs TOR — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballRogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Houston

Astros

46-49 · 18-22 away

Final

Toronto

Blue Jays

44-49 · 22-19 home

MLB.TV

Top hitters

HOU

AVG

.333▼

TOR

AVG

.400▼

Luis Urías

Toronto Blue Jays

2-5 · HR · 2 RBI

Max Exit Velo 18th

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

HOU

Starter

Peter Lambert

Houston Astros · 6-4

4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 3 BB

xwOBA 69th

3.28 ERA · 64 K · 1.17 WHIP

TOR

Starter

Shane Bieber

Toronto Blue Jays · 0-0

3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Fastball Spin 78th

9.82 ERA · 2 K · 2.45 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

What a showdown at Rogers Centre! The Astros edged out the Blue Jays in a high-scoring thriller!

The Astros showcased their offensive prowess, racking up 9 runs to secure the win, proving once again their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Despite a valiant effort from the Blue Jays, who scored 7 runs, it wasn’t enough to overcome Houston's explosive offense and clutch plays.
This victory solidifies the Astros' position, keeping them in the mix as a formidable contender in the playoff race.

Starters: Peter Lambert vs Shane BieberBatting average: E. Clement (.293)ERA: D. Cease (2.75)

How our pick did

Pick to winHOU to winHit ✓

Contact quality

HOU9 R · .394 xBA

TOR7 R · .321 xBA

The scoreboard matched the contact — HOU both hit it harder and scored more.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

HOU win3rd in the AL West, 1½ GB

Looking ahead

The Astros sit 3rd in the AL West, 1½ games back — coming off a loss, 5-5 over their last 10.
The Blue Jays sit 3rd in the AL East, 11 games back — winners of 2 straight, 5-5 over their last 10.
HOU wins series 2-1.
The Astros are up next at TEX (Jul 10-12).
The Blue Jays are up next at SD (Jul 10-12).

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H	E
HOU	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	9	15	1
TOR	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	7	13	1

Statcast

Hardest hit · TOR
K. Okamoto · Single
111.7 mph · .910 xBA
Hardest hit · HOU
T. Trammell · Home Run
108.3 mph · .860 xBA
Longest hit
C. Smith · Home Run
436 ft · 1.000 xBA
Best barrel
T. Trammell · Home Run
108.3 mph · .860 xBA
Fastest pitch
N. Pearson · 4-Seam Fastball
100.2 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Joey Loperfido
HOU
+77%
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR
+49%
Logan VanWey
HOU
+41%

Scoring summary

Paredes singled to center, Altuve scored.1st Inning1-0
Diaz homered to left (391 feet).4th Inning2-0
Smith homered to center (436 feet).4th Inning3-0
Trammell homered to right (421 feet).4th Inning4-0
Urías homered to left (363 feet), Varsho scored.4th Inning4-2
Varsho homered to right (395 feet), Okamoto scored.7th Inning4-4
Okamoto singled to left, Springer scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Okamoto to second.8th Inning4-6
Loperfido reached first base on catcher's interference, Altuve to home, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third. Toronto Blue Jays challenged: call on the field was upheld.9th Inning5-6
Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Alvarez scored.9th Inning6-6
Loperfido homered to right (379 feet), Altuve scored and Alvarez scored.11th Inning9-6
Okamoto singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.11th Inning9-7

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
J. Altuve	3-6	6	3	3	0	0	0	1	20	.243	.316	.405
Y. Alvarez	2-4	4	2	2	0	0	2	0	9	.325	.436	.640
C. Walker	0-6	6	0	0	0	0	0	3	29	.233	.306	.467
I. Paredes	2-6	6	0	2	1	0	0	2	22	.249	.350	.415
Y. Diaz	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	0	8	.246	.272	.373
J. Meyers	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.205	.263	.320
J. Loperfido	1-1	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	10	.238	.337	.357
C. Smith	2-5	5	1	2	2	1	0	1	30	.223	.301	.366
T. Trammell	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	14	.275	.333	.400
J. Pena	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	.284	.346	.451
B. Matthews	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	23	.204	.253	.343
R. Delgado	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	16	.333	.333	.333

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
P. Lambert	4.2	6	2	2	3	6	1	92-52	3.28	92
S. Okert	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	17-14	2.41	17
E. De Los Santos	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	1	26-15	4.67	26
N. Pearson	1.0	1	2	0	1	2	0	21-12	3.86	21
J. Hader	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16-9	1.00	16
L. VanWey	2.0	1	1	0	0	0	0	23-14	1.50	23

Win probability

HOU 100%TOR 0%

Win probability over timeTOR win %

Biggest swing: Loperfido homered to right (379 feet), Altuve scored and Alvarez scored. (+62% HOU)

Team stats

HOUTOR

650

Hits

654

358

Runs

320

103

Home Runs

343

RBI

307

Stolen Bases

267

Walks

219

656

Strikeouts

570

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

HOUTOR

9.39%

Barrel%

6.63%

39.86%

Hard-hit%

36.1%

.330

xwOBA

.310

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant