PHI vs CIN — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballGreat American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Philadelphia

Phillies

Final

Top hitters

PHI

AVG

.305

Brandon Marsh

Philadelphia Phillies

1-4

xwOBA 52nd

CIN

AVG

.274

Elly De La Cruz

Cincinnati Reds

2-3 · 2B · HR · 2 RBI

xwOBA 84th

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

PHI

Starter

Alan Rangel

Philadelphia Phillies · 0-2

3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 3 BB

Fastball Spin 52nd

4.19 ERA · 22 K · 1.40 WHIP

CIN

Starter

Chase Burns

Cincinnati Reds · 11-1

5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 6 BB

xwOBA 82nd

2.54 ERA · 118 K · 1.11 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Reds crushed the Phillies 11-5 in a thrilling showdown! A standout offensive display propelled Cincinnati to victory, showcasing their dominance at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati's offense exploded for 11 runs, clearly outpacing Philadelphia's 5, proving they can light up the scoreboard when it counts.
The Reds capitalized on key moments, demonstrating their ability to seize opportunities and convert them into runs, leaving the Phillies scrambling.
This win not only boosts the Reds' confidence but also reinforces their standing as a formidable force in the league, making them a team to watch moving forward.

Starters: Alan Rangel vs Chase BurnsBatting average: E. De La Cruz (.270)ERA: C. Burns (2.40)

How our pick did

Pick to winPhillies to winMiss

Contact quality

PHI5 R · .299 xBA

CIN11 R · .295 xBA

CIN scored more despite the lower team xBA — PHI squared more up and had less to show for it.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

CIN win5th in the NL Central, 15½ GB

Looking ahead

The Reds sit 5th in the NL Central, 15½ games back — coming off a win, 3-7 over their last 10.
The Phillies sit 2nd in the NL East, 3½ games back — coming off a loss, 5-5 over their last 10.
Series tied 1-1 — they meet again Jul 9.
The Reds are up next home vs PHI (Jul 9), then home vs CHC.
The Phillies are up next at CIN (Jul 9), then at DET.

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
PHI	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	5	8	0
CIN	0	0	2	5	0	4	0	0		11	11	1

Statcast

Hardest hit · PHI
G. Rincones Jr. · Double
112.7 mph · .730 xBA
Hardest hit · CIN
E. De La Cruz · Double
107.1 mph · .740 xBA
Longest hit
B. Stott · Flyout
394 ft · .450 xBA
Best barrel
E. De La Cruz · Double
107.1 mph · .740 xBA
Fastest pitch
C. Burns · 4-Seam Fastball
100.5 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Sal Stewart
CIN
+25%
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
+21%
Justin Crawford
PHI
+14%

Scoring summary

Crawford tripled to right, Rincones Jr. scored.2nd Inning1-0
Crawford scored on Burns wild pitch.2nd Inning2-0
Crawford scored on Burns wild pitch.2nd Inning2-0
Stewart homered to right (356 feet), De La Cruz scored.3rd Inning2-2
Marte homered to left center (371 feet).4th Inning2-3
De La Cruz homered to right center (387 feet), Arroyo scored.4th Inning2-5
Stewart homered to right (358 feet).4th Inning2-6
Bleday homered to right center (384 feet).4th Inning2-7
Stott hit sacrifice fly to left, Harper scored.5th Inning3-7
Realmuto homered to left (354 feet).6th Inning4-7
Bleday singled to center, Friedl scored, De La Cruz to third.6th Inning4-8
Marte doubled to left, De La Cruz scored, Steer scored and Bleday scored.6th Inning4-11
Schwarber homered to right (387 feet).9th Inning5-11

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
B. Harper	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	19	.264	.371	.509
K. Schwarber	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	1	2	26	.254	.370	.575
B. Marsh	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	1	28	.305	.340	.502
B. Stott	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	1	1	24	.245	.304	.389
A. Bohm	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0	19	.222	.283	.367
G. Rincones Jr.	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	1	16	.211	.233	.368
J. Crawford	2-3	3	1	2	1	0	1	1	16	.262	.312	.354
J.T. Realmuto	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	21	.202	.285	.339
R. Marchan	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.111	.153	.185
E. Sosa	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	11	.221	.256	.372

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
A. Rangel	3.1	3	3	3	3	5	2	69-42	4.19	69
T. Banks	0.1	4	4	4	0	0	3	17-13	7.14	17
M. Lazar	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	19-11	3.38	19
J. Alvarado	1.0	2	4	4	3	2	0	35-15	7.03	35
B. Keller	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14-8	4.02	14
T. Mayza	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	21-14	2.81	21

Win probability

PHI 0%CIN 100%

Win probability over timeCIN win %

Biggest swing: Stewart homered to right (356 feet), De La Cruz scored. (+21% CIN)

Team stats

PHICIN

737

Hits

684

407

Runs

373

121

Home Runs

108

393

RBI

354

Stolen Bases

270

Walks

335

809

Strikeouts

852

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

PHICIN

8.39%

Barrel%

10.13%

42.67%

Hard-hit%

39.52%

.320

xwOBA

.320

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant