SD vs CHC — MainMarket Sports · MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballWrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

San Diego

Padres

Final

MLB.TVPadres.TV

Top hitters

AVG

.329

Samad Taylor

San Diego Padres

2-4

Sprint Speed 93rdvs LHP .375

CHC

AVG

.500

Justin Dean

Chicago Cubs

0-0

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

Starter

JP Sears

San Diego Padres · 1-1

4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K, 3 BB

Fastball Velo 23rd

6.97 ERA · 9 K · 1.74 WHIP

CHC

Starter

Matthew Boyd

Chicago Cubs · 3-1

5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

xwOBA 30th

5.08 ERA · 37 K · 1.40 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Cubs edged out the Padres with a thrilling 9-7 victory at Wrigley Field! The standout offensive display propelled Chicago to a crucial win in their race for the postseason.

The Cubs' offense was electric, scoring nine runs to secure a vital win, showcasing their ability to capitalize in key moments.
With this victory, the Cubs solidify their position, keeping the pressure on their rivals as they aim for a playoff spot.
The Padres fought hard, but the Cubs' relentless batting proved too much, highlighting the importance of offensive firepower in close contests.

Starters: JP Sears vs Matthew BoydBatting average: P. Crow-Armstrong (.284)ERA: S. Imanaga (4.30)

How our pick did

Pick to winCHC to winHit ✓

Contact quality

SD7 R · .346 xBA

CHC9 R · .374 xBA

The scoreboard matched the contact — CHC both hit it harder and scored more.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

CHC win2nd in the NL Central, 7 GB

Looking ahead

The Cubs sit 2nd in the NL Central, 7 games back — coming off a loss, 7-3 over their last 10.
The Padres sit 2nd in the NL West, 14 games back — winners of 2 straight, 3-7 over their last 10.
CHC win series 3-0.
The Cubs are up next at CIN (Jul 10-12).
The Padres are up next home vs ARI (Jul 9), then home vs TOR.

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
SD	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	4	0	7	13	1
CHC	1	4	0	0	3	1	0	0		9	13	0

Statcast

Hardest hit · SD
F. Tatis Jr. · Groundout
109.1 mph · .480 xBA
Hardest hit · CHC
M. Busch · Home Run
104.5 mph · .670 xBA
Longest hit
D. Swanson · Home Run
437 ft · 1.000 xBA
Best barrel
G. Sheets · Home Run
107.5 mph · .900 xBA
Fastest pitch
W. Peralta · 4-Seam Fastball
97.8 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Alex Bregman
CHC
+20%
Dansby Swanson
CHC
+17%
Tyler Ferguson
CHC
+10%

Scoring summary

Tatis Jr. homered to left (425 feet).1st Inning1-0
Kelly singled to center, Suzuki scored.1st Inning1-1
Swanson homered to center (432 feet).2nd Inning1-2
Bregman homered to left center (415 feet), Alcántara scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.2nd Inning1-5
Machado homered to right (372 feet), Fermin scored.3rd Inning3-5
Busch homered to right center (424 feet).5th Inning3-6
Swanson homered to left center (437 feet), Happ scored.5th Inning3-8
Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (377 feet).6th Inning3-9
Sheets homered to right center (414 feet), France scored and Bogaerts scored.8th Inning6-9
Tatis Jr. homered to right center (370 feet).8th Inning7-9

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
F. Tatis Jr.	2-5	5	2	2	2	2	0	1	22	.284	.345	.383
S. Taylor	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	1	1	20	.329	.414	.382
M. Machado	2-5	5	1	2	2	1	0	1	14	.189	.274	.399
M. Andujar	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	18	.258	.299	.416
J. Cronenworth	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.139	.263	.188
T. France	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	1	0	15	.267	.328	.506
J. Merrill	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	0	12	.213	.271	.343
X. Bogaerts	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	20	.234	.324	.338
J. Bowen	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	.121	.171	.152
G. Sheets	1-2	2	1	1	3	1	0	0	4	.232	.317	.461
F. Fermin	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	8	.148	.250	.259

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
J. Sears	4.2	8	7	6	3	4	3	95-52	6.97	95
R. Marinaccio	1.2	3	2	2	3	1	2	50-26	4.93	50
W. Peralta	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	23-16	1.62	23

Win probability

SD 0%CHC 100%

Win probability over timeCHC win %

Biggest swing: Bregman homered to left center (415 feet), Alcántara scored and Crow-Armstrong scored. (+13% CHC)

Team stats

SDCHC

600

Hits

699

323

Runs

416

Home Runs

315

RBI

387

Stolen Bases

276

Walks

377

697

Strikeouts

722

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

SDCHC

9.23%

Barrel%

7.99%

43.06%

Hard-hit%

40.11%

.320

xwOBA

.330

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant