CHC vs NYM — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballCiti Field · Queens, New York

Chicago

Cubs

52-41 · 21-20 away

Final

New York

Mets

40-54 · 18-22 home

MLB.TV

Top hitters

CHC

AVG

.667

Justin Dean

Chicago Cubs

0-0

2Pete Crow-Armstrong2-5 · 2B · 1 RBI.290▲
3Carson Kelly0-1.281
4Pedro Ramírez0-4.265

NYM

AVG

.299

Season batting average · amber = strong vs today's starter · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Starting pitchers

CHC

Starter

Matthew Boyd

Chicago Cubs · 2-1

4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 4 BB

xwOBA 30th

5.02 ERA · 35 K · 1.36 WHIP

NYM

Starter

Freddy Peralta

New York Mets · 5-6

5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K, BB

xwOBA 62nd

4.53 ERA · 88 K · 1.37 WHIP

Season pitching · MLB Stats API · Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Our analysis

What happened

The Cubs edged out the Mets with a thrilling 4-3 victory at Citi Field! A standout performance from the Cubs' offense sealed the deal, driving in just enough runs to secure the win.

The Cubs' offense proved to be the difference-maker, scoring just enough to outlast the Mets in a tightly contested battle. With crucial hits at the right moments, they capitalized on opportunities that kept the pressure on New York.
Cubs pitching held strong, limiting the Mets to just three runs, showcasing their resilience on the mound. This performance not only secured the win but also highlighted the Cubs' ability to compete under pressure as they look to climb the standings.

Starters: Matthew Boyd vs Freddy PeraltaBatting average: J. Soto (.299)ERA: N. McLean (4.03)

How our pick did

Pick to winCHC to winHit ✓

Contact quality

CHC4 R · .305 xBA

NYM3 R · .329 xBA

CHC scored more despite the lower team xBA — NYM squared more up and had less to show for it.

Expected BA on balls in play · Baseball Savant

CHC win2nd in the NL Central, 7 GB

Looking ahead

The Cubs sit 2nd in the NL Central, 7 games back — coming off a loss, 7-3 over their last 10.
The Mets sit 5th in the NL East, 15 games back — winners of 2 straight, 5-5 over their last 10.
CHC win series 4-0 — they meet again Jun 22.
The Cubs are up next at CIN (Jul 10-12).
The Mets are up next home vs BOS (Jul 10-12).

Line score

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H	E
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	4	6	1
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	3	9	2

Statcast

Hardest hit · CHC
P. Crow-Armstrong · Double
106.7 mph · .860 xBA
Hardest hit · NYM
R. Mauricio · Double
106.5 mph · .860 xBA
Longest hit
J. Young · Home Run
388 ft · .920 xBA
Best barrel
J. Young · Home Run
105.7 mph · .920 xBA
Fastest pitch
F. Peralta · 4-Seam Fastball
97.8 mph

Game MVP · win probability

Trent Thornton
CHC
+45%
Jared Young
NYM
+28%
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC
+25%

Scoring summary

Conforto singled to right, Swanson scored.6th Inning1-0
Bregman doubled to right, Conforto scored on error, Bregman safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Benge.6th Inning2-0
Happ singled to right, Bregman scored.6th Inning3-0
Wagaman homered to left (383 feet), Ewing scored.6th Inning3-2
Young homered to right center (388 feet).7th Inning3-3
Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Shaw scored.10th Inning4-3

Box score

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
P. Crow-Armstrong	2-5	5	0	2	1	0	1	17	.290	.370	.524
M. Conforto	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	1	14	.224	.323	.430
J. Dean	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.667	.667	1.333
C. Kelly	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	.281	.364	.395
M. Busch	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	1	15	.240	.370	.390
A. Bregman	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	1	20	.244	.338	.343
I. Happ	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	2	15	.229	.338	.462
N. Hoerner	0-3	3	0	0	0	1	0	18	.239	.317	.343
P. Ramirez	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	3	17	.265	.308	.388
M. Amaya	0-3	3	0	0	0	1	1	21	.222	.359	.352
M. Shaw	0-0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.246	.309	.421
D. Swanson	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	2	20	.199	.299	.379

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
M. Boyd	4.2	4	0	0	4	4	0	76-46	5.02	76
E. Roberts	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15-7	3.28	15
H. Milner	0.0	3	1	1	0	0	1	13-7	3.53	13
P. Maton	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	1	23-16	6.08	23
C. Thielbar	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	12-9	4.50	12
J. Webb	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20-11	3.67	20
T. Thornton	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10-8	2.86	10

Win probability

CHC 100%NYM 0%

Win probability over timeNYM win %

Biggest swing: Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Shaw scored. (+30% CHC)

Team stats

CHCNYM

667

Hits

619

395

Runs

325

Home Runs

367

RBI

311

Stolen Bases

353

Walks

235

670

Strikeouts

665

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

CHCNYM

7.99%

Barrel%

10.09%

40.11%

Hard-hit%

42.38%

.330

xwOBA

.340

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant