NYM vs PHI — MainMarket Sports

Major League BaseballCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Thu, Jul 16 · 7:00 PM EDT

New York

Mets

40-54 · 19-29 away

July 16 · 7:00 PM EDT

Philadelphia

Phillies

51-42 · 25-21 home

Our prediction

Our pick · projected final

NYM4Proj4PHI

Pick to winPhillies to winBest betPhillies to win.

Confidence Low

The pitching matchup for this game features two arms that have shown varying levels of effectiveness throughout the season. The Mets will likely rely on their starter to keep the game competitive, but they have struggled on the road with a 19-29 record away from home. On the other hand, the Phillies have a solid home record at 25-21, which could give their pitcher a slight edge in this matchup. Both teams will need their starters to step up to avoid a high-scoring affair.
Key hitters will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this game. The Mets have some offensive talent that can capitalize on mistakes, but consistency has been an issue for them this season. The Phillies, however, boast a lineup that has shown the ability to produce runs, particularly at Citizens Bank Park, where the dimensions favor hitters. If the Phillies' key players can find their rhythm early, it could lead to a significant advantage.
The bullpens will also be a factor in this matchup. Both teams have had their ups and downs in late-game situations, but the Phillies' bullpen has generally been more reliable this season. If the game remains close late, the ability of the Phillies' relievers to shut down the Mets could be the difference-maker. Additionally, the park factors at Citizens Bank Park tend to favor hitters, which could contribute to a higher-scoring game than expected.

Top hitters

NYM

AVG

.297

Juan Soto

New York Mets

xwOBA 99th

2A.J. Ewing.277▲
3Carson Benge.269
4Bo Bichette.256

PHI

AVG

.305

Brandon Marsh

Philadelphia Phillies

xwOBA 52nd

2Bryce Harper.264
3Justin Crawford.262▲
4Kyle Schwarber.254

Season batting average · up/down arrow = hot/cold last 15 · MLB Stats API · hero Statcast accent by Baseball Savant

Win probability

NYM 41%PHI 59%

Team stats

NYMPHI

732

Hits

745

387

Runs

412

108

Home Runs

123

369

RBI

397

Stolen Bases

286

Walks

278

765

Strikeouts

816

Runners LOB

Statcast profile

NYMPHI

10.09%

Barrel%

8.39%

42.38%

Hard-hit%

42.67%

.340

xwOBA

.320

Barrel% perfectly-struck balls — ideal exit velo + launch angle, near-automatic extra bases · Hard-hit% share of balls hit 95+ mph · xwOBA expected offensive value from contact quality (higher is better)

Season quality of contact · Baseball Savant